Furtive Fallacy – FT#174

13 May Furtive Fallacy – FT#174

Show Notes

The Furtive Fallacy occurs when someone assumes that significant events are due to hidden actions by nefarious powerful people.

Trump

We started out by discussing this clip of Trump on George Soros:

Then we looked at this “truth”:

And finally we talked about this clip of Trump claiming the election was stolen:

Mark’s British Politics Corner

Mark talked about Nadine Dorries spreading conspiracies about Ofcom

He followed that up by talking about Nadine again, talking about why Rishi really called the election when he did:

And he finished with another Nadine clip, talking about leadership battles:

Fallacy in the Wild

In the Fallacy in the Wild we looked at this clip from Cheers:

Then we discussed this clip from So I Married an Axe-Murderer

And we finished up with this clip of Randy Quaid:

Fake News

Here are the statements from this week’s Fake News game:

Mark got it right this week, and is still on 51%!

The first 100 days were not a logical fallacy

We talked about Trump’s first 100 days.

The stories we really didn’t have time to talk about

• A special report in the Economist in October 2024, a month before the election, called America’s economy the “envy of the world”, and said America had “left other rich countries in the dust”. Biden brought inflation down from 9% in June 2022 to just 2.4% by the election, and presided over 48 consecutive months of job growth, a record high stock market, and the highest growth in GDP since Carter. Naturally, Trump took credit for much of that, claiming that investors were just excited at the prospect that he would be elected. Curiously, now that the numbers are in for Trump’s first three months, he’s a bit happier to share the responsibility around. The US economy shrank by 0.3% since January, the stock market still hasn’t recovered from the whole tariff shitstorm, and Goldman Sachs raised the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 45%, up a bit from 15% at the end of Biden’s term. Trump opened his cabinet meeting last week by saying “You probably saw some numbers today, and I have to start off by saying that’s Biden — that’s not Trump — because we came in on January,” and it doesn’t seem like he’s super confident about the next few months, because he closed it by saying “you can even say the next quarter is, sort of, Biden, because it doesn’t just happen on a daily or an hourly basis, but we’re turning it around. It’s a big ship to turn around.” The big ship metaphor for the US economy is a good one – it’s one I’ve used before, but the problem is that Trump has through a combination of incompetence and ego, demonstrably managed to turn that ship from a course headed for tropical islands and kittens, right into a waterfall in the Bermuda triangle. Trump isn’t completely washing his hands of any blame of course, he does take responsibility for some aspects of the economy. When asked by Kristin Welker on NBC he said “I think the good parts are the ‘Trump economy’ and the bad parts are the ‘Biden economy’ because he’s done a terrible job”. In a way, he’s right, because the good parts are things he has completely made up, like eggs for under a dollar and gas for a dollar 98. In fact, average gas prices in the USA today are $3.145 per gallon, up 2 cents from the average on inauguration day which is actually kind of impressive, since gas prices are down globally due to a drop in the price of crude oil. In the UK, prices have dropped the equivalent of 20 cents per gallon since January 20th, and in case you’d like to feel like the economy could be worse, our average gas price this week is £1.33 per liter, which is $6.70 a gallon.
• For three days this week, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt invited MAGA-friendly influencers to ask her questions during a dedicated press briefing. “Tens of millions of Americans are now turning to social media and independent media outlets to consume their news, and we are embracing that change, not ignoring it” Leavitt said in a seven-minute opening speech. Well, that’s one in the eye of the traditional media, isn’t it? Too often, legacy outlets focus on fripperies such as But the Supreme Court has ordered you to do this, so why haven’t you done it? or Why is there a tariff on an uninhabited island? or Come on, that’s clearly Photoshop. Instead they ought to address the biggest issue of the day: “my Uber drivers finally speak English again, so thank you for that.” as noted by the first influencer to ask a question – Arynne Wexler. The new-media briefing is part of the Trump administration’s attempt to formalize the network of friendly commentators and influencers who have prospered on X, YouTube, Rumble, podcasts, and ultra-conservative television channels. The plan appears to be to secure the loyalty of these attention-hungry narcissists by setting them against one another, in a kind of sycophancy Hunger Games, as they compete for access through ever greater acts of devotion and flattery. Jack Posobiec, perhaps best-known for promoting the Pizzagate conspiracy theory, asked a minute-long question about how violent the far left was, and received a two-minute-long answer from Leavitt about how violent the far left was. Viewers also heard from Dom Lucre (who describes himself to his 1.5 million X followers as a “breaker of narratives”) asking if the White House would investigate “Barack Hussein Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton” for election-integrity offenses. “It’s refreshing to actually hear a question on election integrity, because the legacy media would never ask such a question,” Leavitt replied, ignoring the fact that the media asked quite a lot of questions about her boss’s well-documented iffy-election-integrity-y efforts to pressure officials in Georgia to declare him the winner there in 2020. “They’re so out of touch with where the American people are on this issue.” The first briefing lasted 25 minutes, although the barrage of safe questions and safe answers made it feel much longer. The obvious knock is that this is not journalism but entertainment. The trouble is that it’s not even particularly entertaining. Of course it’s all about quid pro quo. Influencers are offered access to all the awesome scenery of the White House—the perfect backdrop for any viral video—and the heady sense of being insiders. In return, all they have to do is ask questions that would make a Soviet propagandist blush and provide the coverage the Great Leader so desperately craves from fellow empty-headed preening self-important nobodies.
• You may recall that some Republicans took an interest in whether Joe Biden’s son Hunter sought to enrich himself through his connection to the President, and they were pretty sure that he did, and it was bad. With that fresh in everyone’s mind, I’m sure they would be paying close attention to Donald’s kids to make sure they’re squeaky clean. Weirdly though, I haven’t heard any of them mention Don Jr’s latest venture. He’s one of the owners of an exclusive, invitation-only Washington DC club that costs more than half a million dollars to join. Other owners are Zach and Alex Witkoff – the sons of Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, and Omeed Malik, a Trump megadonor. Still, nothing wrong with that – Don Jr mixes in DC circles these days, so he’s bound to meet and work with people tangentially related to politics. It’s not like he’s trading on his Dad’s position to make money with this club, which, incidentally, is called Executive Branch, and caters to business and tech moguls who are looking to nurture their relationships with the Trump administration according to two people who spoke to Politico about it. They also said that the referral requirements and prohibitive pricing is meant to ensure the C-suite crowd can mingle with Trump advisers and cabinet members without the prying eyes of the press and wanna-be insiders. Even James Comer couldn’t fuck up this investigation – they’re doing it all out in the open!
• Trump, who of course knows everything there is to know about the media industry, is either upset cos Hollywood didn’t vote for him or just thinks that foreign film production constitutes a “national security threat”.  Whilst this may not withstand legal scrutiny – d’uh ya think? – it does seem to form the basis of his wish to impose a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the United States. How on earth this will be implemented is not clear but many in the industry are certain that it would have the ability to bring the movie business to a standstill – which is the last thing Hollywood needs after dual strikes and a content recession. Jay Sures, vice chairman of United Talent Agency, told CNN “the fact is, it’s cheaper for Hollywood studios to pay for everyone to get on planes [to], and pay for hotels [overseas], because of the cost of labor and lack of rebates” [in the US]. Incidentally, as intellectual property, movies are a form of services – not goods. Services are not ordinarily subject to tariffs, and it’s unclear how Trump’s tariffs on foreign movies would work. On Monday a White House spokesperson, Kush Desai, said, “while no final decisions on foreign film tariffs have been made, the Administration is exploring all options to deliver on President Trump’s directive to safeguard our country’s national and economic security while Making Hollywood Great Again.” and of course this is all because “Other nations have been stealing the movies, the moviemaking capabilities, from the United States,” said Trump apparently referring to the growing number of movies that are produced in other countries like Canada. “We should have a tariff on movies that come in”. Will historical dramas about the US involvement in World War II be taxed for filming in the places where they’re set? As Sures asked, “if two minutes of the movie is shot overseas, does that deserve to be taxed?” Where is The Italian Job 2 supposed to be shot? I suspect it’s all because Trump never had a part in a film where he got to fly to an exotic location – because he’s shit! Never mind trying to be the Pope mate, you couldn’t pass the audition for the role of the policeman in Death in Paradise!
• The Oval Office. Seen in footage from the White House itself, but also well known to viewers of the West Wing, Mars Attacks, White House Down, and of course, Wonder Woman 1984 along with hundreds of other TV shows and movies. Part of what makes it so iconic is the reverence people hold for the history that has happened in that room. Pivotal decisions taken by great men who felt the weight of responsibility in service to the people they represented. The room has become a legendary symbol of America  in the same vein as the stars and stripes or the bald eagle. So naturally, Trump is doing his best to fuck it up. Trump, of course, sees no value in history, so he’s slowly covering his office in gold. Gold ornaments crowding every shelf, gold cups in recesses above windows, a gold paperweight with his name on it, lest he forget, on the resolute desk, gold frames paintings on every wall, and gold appliques on every fucking surface, from fireplaces to fascias, cornices to wainscotting. He claims it’s 24 karat gold, but exact copies of some elements were found on Alibaba in polyurethane foam for a couple of dollars. And this gilded, enshittified office, is where he sits to decide how many dolls American children are allowed, because his enshittification of the economy means they can’t have the usual 37, apparently, but must settle for three or four. 
• Beginning in the 2025-26 school year, thousands of high school students in Oklahoma will follow a new curriculum which includes a section that requires students to “analyze contemporary turning points of 21st-century American society.” But it’s not so much a course on conspiracy theories, but an official component of the new social studies curriculum created by Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters – Republican of course that requires students to “Identify discrepancies in 2020 elections results by looking at graphs and other information, including the sudden halting of ballot-counting in select cities in key battleground states, the security risks of mail-in balloting, sudden batch dumps, an unforeseen record number of voters, and the unprecedented contradiction of “bellwether county” trends”. In March, Walters said (in something akin to a missive from the 1984 fiction-novel’s Ministry of Truth) the purpose of this section was to teach “students to think for themselves” and “not be spoon-fed left-wing propaganda.” According to Walters, there are “legitimate concerns” about the integrity of the 2020 election that were “raised by millions of Americans in 2020.” Ah no! No, no they weren’t legitimate as attested in every case brought to court by Trump and his lackeys about sudden halting of ballot-counting in select cities in key battleground states, the security risks of mail-in balloting, sudden batch dumps, an unforeseen record number of voters, and the unprecedented contradiction of “bellwether county” trends, being thrown out and ruled as illegitimate. But hey, never mind, the new curriculum will only cost Oklahoma taxpayers around $33 million and Moms for Liberty praised it as being “truth-filled, anti-woke, and unapologetically conservative.” and not spoon-feeding right-wing propaganda at all. They also delivered a warning: “In the last few election cycles, grassroots conservative organizations have flipped seats across Oklahoma by holding weak Republicans accountable. If you choose to side with the liberal media and make backroom deals with Democrats to block conservative reform, you will be next.” So no wonder Walters also proudly announced that his new curriculum will increase the number of mentions of the Bible from two to nearly 50 for students starting in first grade. The Bible lessons primarily focus on the influence of Christian values on the Constitution and the Founding Fathers. Of course the curriculum does not reference the Founding Fathers’ insistence on the separation of church and state since the 1600s, oh no Walters and many of the Christian nationalist figures who helped him craft the curriculum have said that the separation of church and state is unconstitutional or a myth! Not dissimilar in many ways to the unconstitutional 2020 stolen election Big Myth! And hey who wants Moms for Liberty coming round and holding you to account for being weak, and turning the other cheek or forgiving trespassers and other similarly pussy-assed stuff! Jesus Christ!
• Back in November we talked about Trump’s insane cabinet picks and I mentioned that his pick for Surgeon General, Janette Nesheiwat, might not last, because while she was a regular on Fox, she had also advocated for mask and vaccine mandates and some of Trump’s base weren’t happy about that. Well, that finally came true last week when she was booted before ever being confirmed, although it’s not clear whether she was got rid of because she unwisely promoted responsible health practices, or because she got her medical degree in the Caribbean before doing her residency in Arkansas, which is a totally legitimate pathway. Anyhoo, Trump has replaced her with someone who I’m sure will be great. Oh, no, sorry, it’s a right-wing wellness influencer who never finished her residency and doesn’t have a medical license. For Surgeon General. Well, fuck. She’s anti vaccine, anti birth control, pro raw milk and talking to trees to get romance advice. For some right wing nutjobs at least, she’s not crazy enough. Mike Adams, the Health Ranger, said “She’s not a health freedom advocate. She’ll never recommend natural cancer cures or remedies. She’s basically cosplaying as a MAHA champion” (that’s Make America Healthy Again, btw). RFK’s former running mate Nicole Shanahan, former national security advisor Mike Flynn and all around crazy person Laura Loomer have all spoken out against Means, saying Trump has made a bad choice, because they think she’s TOO mainstream. Trump, meanwhile, when asked why he would pick a Surgeon General without a medical license, said “Because Bobby thought she was fantastic…I don’t know her.”
• In Britain we’ve had local council elections – basically the chance at a local level to elect who you think would represent your community’s interests vis-a-vis managing the budget funded by people paying their community charge; how to best manage bin collecting?, how could local transport better encourage people to not use their cars in towns?, shall we have Christmas decorations in the shopping centre again this year? That kind of thing. Nah course it isn’t! it’s a way for the national parties to bash the incumbent government and poke them in the collective eye with a sharp ballot paper. It’s always touted as an effective measure of opinion about the progress the national government is making. Needless to say Labour didn’t do too well – sort of coming nationally about 4th. Nigel Farrago’s reform party – Farrago defined as a jumble or medley of disorganized, haphazard, or even nonsensical ideas or elements, took a lot of votes, positioning themselves as an alternative to both the Tories and Labour and got voted into running a lot of councils. Former Conservative Dame Andrea Jenkyns even became Reform Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire and in the by-election in Runcorn and Helsby: Reform won a new MP taking the post from Labour by 6 votes. The problem for Reform is that they are now going to have to actually run some local councils. As basically a protest party and Farage’s private company for sticking two fingers up at the establishment and getting on television to spout his thinly-veiled racist views, they have no experience whatsoever being in local communities let alone managing budgets on behalf of the community members. Indeed Desmond Clarke, Reform UK councillor, has already stepped down, a matter of days after being elected to Nottinghamshire County Council. Having run an election on a promise to cut spending and waste, his resignation will trigger a by-election costing taxpayers thousands of pounds! Meanwhile, whilst everyone slavers over the threat that Reform poses with its winning of 677 seats, the Green party won 43 and now have 859 seats. The Tories lost 674 and the Liberal Democrats now control more councils than the Conservatives for the first time ever. Oh and Labour lost 187. Basically Labour not being Labour enough and the Tories not being Reform enough and Farage promising everything to everybody, resulted in the Tories possibly considering letting Farage be their prime minister at some point if they want to survive what’s looking like the end of the two-party system. And having only ever been in it for themselves since their founding in 1834 the Tory party will find sufficient words to justify that to themselves waaaay before letting Boris anywhere near the job again.

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